First of all, as I tweeted earlier, I haven't read Bill Simmons' NBA finals column yet so as to not cloud my judgment. Where to begin? The most storied rivalry in the NBA history is adding another chapter beginning tonight. The Celtics and Lakers are the two most recent NBA Champions, but the Celtics defeated the Lakers in 2008 in rare form. The Lakers clearly have a chip on their shoulder. Even Ron Artest is upset about 2008 and he wasn't even on the team at the time. Whoa.
The regular season matchups between these two teams could not have been closer either. In the first game on January 31st, the Lakers took the win in Boston 90-89 on a Kobe Bryant jump-shot with 8 seconds left, completely blanketed by Ray Allen. The second matchup was won by Boston in Los Angeles: the final score? 87-86. Ray Allen had a game high 24pts and led the C's to victory on the road. So if they played 8 straight quarters, the score would be 176-176? This is going to be a great series.
Let's look at some of the matchups.
PG: Derek Fisher looked like a dead fish for most of the regular season, but has come on strong in the playoffs, helping the Lakers win a crucial Game 5 in the Western Conference Finals with 22pts. His counterpart on the Celtics would be the runaway favorite for a "Most Improved Player Since the Last Time We Were in the Finals" Award, Rajon Rondo. Rondo put the Celtics on his (young) back in the Cavs series after a soul-crushing defeat at home in Game 3 with an incredible performance (29pts, 18 reb, 13 ast). Can Fisher guard Rondo? Short answer: no. The Lakers will probably put Kobe on Rondo, which leads us to...
SG: Kobe Bryant is clearly the best player on the court, if not in all of the NBA right now. If you watched Game 6 of the W. Conference Finals, you know what I'm talking about. A 37pt performance that demonstrated some of the best "I Don't Care How Well You Defend Me, I'm Kobe Bryant and I'm Going to Make This Shot" faces I've seen in a while. However, as noted above, the Lakers may try stopping Rondo with Kobe, so that leaves... Derek Fisher on Ray Allen? Allen never stops moving: behind the basket, coming off screens, zig-zagging across the paint, etc. Derek Fisher can't keep up, and look-out if Ray-Ray gets a one step lead off the screen; Derek Fisher isn't tall enough to guard that lightning-fast release.
SF: Possibly the most intruiging matchup of the Finals, Paul Pierce vs. Ron Artest. Before the Lakers/C's game even started back at the end of January, Artest and Pierce were jostling and shoving each other. My sincere hope is that the refs don't call this one tightly, because these two should be allowed to play. In the two regular season games, Artest and Pierce had a total of 26pts each; Pierce, 9reb, Artest 8reb; Pierce, 40% from the field, Artest, 38%. However, against each other, Pierce shot 36% from 3pt land, while Artest only managed 22%. For the C's to win, Pierce has to be able to get open looks and score points as well as play Artest tight and force contested shots.
PF/C: The Kevin Garnett/Pau Gasol matchup is almost as interesting as the one above, apart from my lingering nervousness about two things: Gasol got better, KG's knees got worse. The one silver lining is that Garnett still gets into people's heads, see exhibit A: Rashard Lewis, PF, Orlando Magic. Gasol seems to get flustered easily, and it negatively impacts his play, more so than any other player on either of these rosters (Perkins doesn't count because for all we know he may not be playing one of the games this series). The Andrew Bynum issue is of course a big one. He is limited by injury, and there is no real way of knowing what he will and won't be able to do.
Also of note, Doc Rivers may go with Garnett on Odom and put Perkins, one of the best post-defenders in the league, on Gasol. Odom is an interesting player because he a staple Lakers big man, but he can spread the floor with his shooting. Perkins is walking on thin ice with the technical fouls and he's going to have to play it safe. The Celtics win and lose on the strength of their defense, and he is an integral part of that.
Bench: Rasheed Wallace, Nate Robinson, Glen Davis, and Tony Allen have all at some point this postseason stepped up and given the Celtics the spark they needed to win a game/series. The Lakers bench claim to fame is Sasha Vujicic coming into games in the Suns series with the express purpose of heckling and distracting fellow countryman Goran Dragic; it's sad, but it worked. But it's the NBA Finals, there's no real telling what's going to happen. As a Celtics fan, I have to put an incredible amount of faith in our bench - they've helped us get to where we are and must continue to play at a high level for the Celtics to win the title.
If you had told me a month and a half ago that the Boston Celtics were going to be in the NBA Finals, I would have laughed in your face. But here they are, playing team basketball and the best defense they've played since the beginning of the year. That's the bread and butter of this team. The Lakers are riding the Kobe Bryant train, of course, but this time, Gasol, Artest, and Fisher are playing at a high level as well. This is going to be a great series, and I don't intend to miss a minute of it.
Game 1 starts tonight at 9PM. Get your popcorn ready.
First, lol @ having to refrain from reading Simmon's take on everything before posting on DC. Great perspective though. If they put Fisher on Rondo, he will get his lunch ate every possession. But SO much depends on Bynum's knee. If he can play, I don't see how the Lakers can lose the series in the paint. Switch whoever, it won't matter IMO.
ReplyDeleteBUT, (you know this was coming) the issue you skirted in the SG match-up: WHO is stopping the Mamba? sure, he might guard Rondo, freeing up Ray-Ray to do some numbers, but on the opposite end of the court, who is going to D up Kobe? If Kobe starts going Jack Bauer during this series, I don't know what the Celtics can do to adjust.
And yes, I giggle at the thought of The Black Mamba dropping 50 to destroy Boston. I dream about that. Great post, as always.